In law, the country is just about to enter the Elections Dispute Resolution Stage at the Courts.
This is the predictable pathway, whether politicians and citizens like or not.
~Nov 1: Deadline for the declaration of Presidential Election Results.
~Nov 8: Deadline for Filing Presidential Election Petition.
~Nov 22: Deadline for Supreme Court Judgment
(The Supreme Court is obliged to follow the timeline, there is no legal room for another lack of quorum.)
~Dec 5: Swearing in if Petition fails.
~Jan 21: Deadline for Fresh Election if Petition succeeds.
Reasons for an Annulment
The reasons for a judgment of the Supreme Court to nullify again lie totally with the Elections Commission IEBC
~Failure to publish Voter Register
~Gazetting Candidates after printing ballot papers;
~Inclusion of candidates who withdrew;
~Higher number of votes than announced voter turn-out *(longer explanation below)
These are some obvious (publicly available) examples
The allegations of Roselyn Akombe and the IEBC Chairman Chebukati’s admission that the Commission is not independent will equally be examined with full effect.
*Explanation of the Voter turn-out argument:
The IEBC Chairman has announced via Twitter that voter turnout was about 6.5 Million. Later he attempted to clarify that the figure was only an estimate because some voters were not identified using the KIEMS kit.
In law, this is an unsatisfactory explanation. The law requires IEBC Polling Station Officials (Presiding Officer) to record and send to the National Tallying Centre in Nairobi the number of the voter turnout at 0900HRS; 1200HRS; 1500HRS; and 1700HRS after polling stations close. The total of these numbers was not announced as it was required by the Regulations.
The National Tallying Centre is required to simply compile the voter turnouts from all the 290 constituencies and communicate to the public. This was the legal presumption when the Chairman announced the turnout as 6.5 Million.
But any other explanation that displaces the legal requirement is irregular and illegal.
Explanation of the picture:
The photo shows the screen of what a KIEMS device (the tablet that IEBC officers use) transmitted from a polling station: More than two-thirds of the voters were not found in the electronic register at that polling station.
In a press conference in July 2017, the IEBC had stated that in tests less than five percent could not be identified by their fingerprints and had to be found using their ID numbers. A much higher percentage like that in the screenshot could, therefore, hint to a high number of voters who were “voted” for without being present at the polling station. Such rigging would most likely happen shortly before or after the closure of the polling station, so transmitting the voter turnout every three hours would have helped to prevent it.